Wall Street Cuts Bitcoin Price Targets as Fed Rate Path Turns Hawkish

Citigroup cut its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $112,000 to $82,000, and now expects essentially no net new capital to enter US spot Bitcoin ETFs over the next year, according to 24/7 Wall St.

The revision follows a hawkish shift in interest-rate expectations. A recent PCE inflation print has been cited as validating forecasts for as many as three additional Fed rate hikes in the second half of 2026, according to the same report, with meetings in September, October, and December viewed as the likely windows.

Bitcoin ETFs, which had driven much of the 2024-2025 institutional demand for the asset, saw roughly $4.5 billion in outflows in June alone — the category's worst month since spot funds launched in early 2024 — pushing full-year flows negative for the first time.

Higher-for-longer interest rates typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold relative to cash and short-term bonds, which is one reason macro rate expectations move crypto prices even without any crypto-specific news. It's also a good illustration of why a "cash" comparison matters: when rates are elevated, holding dollars in interest-bearing accounts carries a real opportunity cost calculation of its own.

The Crypto Reality Check lets you compare a crypto position directly against cash, gold, and the S&P 500 over the same period, so you can see how each asset actually performed in real terms regardless of which way the Fed moves next.